INTERNET FAILURE HITS TWO CONTINENTS !

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (CNN) -- High-technology services across large tracts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa were crippled Thursday following a widespread Internet failure which brought many businesses to a standstill and left others struggling to cope.

Hi-tech Dubai has been hit hard by an Internet outage apparently caused by a cut undersea cable.

Industry experts are blaming damage to two undersea cables but it is not known what caused the damage.

Reports say that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain Pakistan and India, are all experiencing severe problems.

Nations that have been spared the chaos include Israel -- whose traffic uses a different route -- and Lebanon and Iraq. Many Middle East governments have backup satellite systems in case of cable failure.

Stephan Beckert, an analyst with TeleGeography, a research company that consults on global Internet issues, said the damaged cables collectively account for the majority of international communications between Europe and the Middle East.

Du, a state-owned Dubai telecom provider, attributed the outage to an undersea cable cut between Alexandria, Egypt and Palermo, Italy, according to an internal memo obtained by CNN.

In India, Spectranet and Telecomasia.net, two large Internet service providers were experiencing problems. Reliance, a third major Indian Internet provider, said it was not affected.



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An official at Egypt's Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, speaking on condition of anonymity told AP it was believed that a boat's anchor may have caused the problems, although this was unconfirmed. Beckert agreed that was a likely cause.

The head of an Egyptian Internet service provider called the situation a "wake-up call" for the region, which he said is too dependent on underground lines and does not have a strong enough back-up system. Mohammed Amir, head of Quantum, an ISP in Cairo, described the situation as "a major problem," but expressed hope that the worst of it is over.

The two cables damaged are FLAG Telecom's FLAG Europe-Asia cable and SeaMeWe-4, a cable owned by a consortium of more than a dozen telecommunications companies, Beckert said.

He added the options while those cables are repaired were re-routing traffic around the globe or using an older undamaged cable that has less capacity -- both of which would cause usage delays.



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Kuwait's Ministry of Communications said the problem could take two weeks to solve, according to a statement carried by the state news agency, KUNA.

There were concerns in India that an Internet slowdown could affect trading patterns at the country's two major exchanges, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Delhi and the SENSEX exchange in Bombay.

Rajesh Chharia, president of India's Internet Service Providers' Association, explained that some firms were trying to reroute via Pacific cables and that companies serving the eastern US and the UK were worst affected, AP added.

Besides the Internet, the outage caused major disruption to television and phone services, creating chaos for the UAE's public and private sectors.

The Du internal memo called the situation in Dubai "critical" and stated that the cable's operators did not know when services would be restored.

"This will have a major impact on our voice and Internet service for all the customers," the memo stated. "The network operation team are working with our suppliers overseas to resolve this as soon as possible."

The outage led to a rapid collapse of a wide range of public services in a country which proudly promotes itself as a technological pioneer.

Sources from Emirates Airlines confirmed to CNN Arabic that the outage did not affect its flight schedules -- a statement which assured hundreds of travelers worried after rumors about the possibility of rescheduled flights due to the faults.

However, Dnata, a government group in charge of providing air travel services in the Middle East and ground handling services at Dubai International Airport, acknowledged facing problems because of the outage, sources from its technical department confirmed to CNN Arabic.

The outage heavily crippled Dubai's business section, which is heavily reliant on electronic means for billions of dollars' worth of transactions daily.

Wadah Tahah, the business strategies and development manager for state-owned construction company EMAAR, told CNN Arabic that it was fortunate the outage started Wednesday, when there had been only moderate activity in the UAE markets. He said that softened the blow to business interests.

But Tahah warned that if the outage continued, "such a situation could create problems between brokers, companies, and investors due to loss of control." E-mail to a friend

CNN's Elham Nakhlawi, Mustafa Al Arab,

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LIARS' LOANS !

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Liars’ loans !

Robert Peston
20 Aug 07, 08:00 AM

The underlying cause of the current global financial crisis is a system in which there’s little personal responsibility for lending decisions.Here’s how it all works (or, as we now see, how it doesn’t work).

In the US, some half a million mortgage brokers have been incentivised to “sell” mortgages to potential homebuyers.They don’t work for the providers of the loans. They are paid commissions for the volume of mortgages they arrange. So, of course, they try to arrange as many mortgages as they can, not minding the consequences.

If the customer wants to borrow more than he or she can really afford, then that’s no problem, thanks to a wonderful innovation called “stated income, stated assets” loans.

These allow US homebuyers to give a personal undertaking that their income is a certain level, even if they don’t provide any proof.

Such loans have been taken out by hundreds of thousands of US citizens who are pay-as-you-earn tax-payers and could therefore have easily provided proof of earnings, had they wanted to do so.

Surprise, surprise: studies have shown “discrepancies” between what such borrowers say they earn and what they actually earn, in 95 per cent of these loans.

These mortgages are now colloquially known as “liars’ loans”.But liars’ loans are just the extreme manifestation of a US system for generating home loans which is predicated on turning a blind eye to economic reality.

When a borrower has difficulty making repayments on a loan, a mortgage broker would typically encourage them to pay off that loan by taking out a new one for an even greater amount! These are the infamous “rolling loans” which “gather no losses”.When a loan is rolled over, no one need know that defaults loom – at least not for a while.



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Wall Street’s sausage machine !

What happens to all these hundreds of billions of dollars in home loans?

Well the paperwork and administration is usually done by specialist home loans companies, such as New Century Financial (which went into bankruptcy protection in the spring).

Then the debt itself goes into a giant mincing and mixing machine on Wall Street operated by the biggest US investment banks, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and the like.They take all this debt and they process it into asset-backed securities, or bonds.

Note that Goldman, Morgan et al have NO CONNECTION with the borrowers and NO IDEA whether an individual borrower is a good risk or a bad risk.But they have historic data on default rates.And this data allows them – or so they claim – to assess whether a bond is a good risk or a poor risk, and therefore to price it for consumption by international investors.

What’s more, verification of the riskiness of a bond is provided, for a fee, by the specialist credit-rating agencies, led by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (let’s for now ignore the obvious conflict-of-interest that as the market for these bonds expands, the rating agencies make bigger profits).



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There’s a conspicuous problem here !

An important part of the US home loans market, the sub-prime mortgages provided to those with poor credit histories, is a young market which has grown like topsy.

Or to put it another way, data gathered from past performance of loans in a small market may not be much of a guide to the future performance of a trillion dollar plus market.

But that hasn’t stopped the big investment banks citing this questionable data to convert sub-prime loans into bonds that they claim are risk-free and which have a so-called triple-A credit rating.



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Here’s how they do the clever engineering !

For argument's sake, let’s say that they estimate that as many as one in two home loans will default and that on average there will be a 40 per cent loss on those defaulting loans. That, in turn, gives a maximum risk of 20 per cent losses on a portfolio of these loans.Bad news? Not for creative investment bankers.

Out of this portfolio of low-quality loans, they can create supposedly high quality bonds by putting in place covenants which stipulate that the first 20 per cent of losses would be attributed to one bunch of really poisonous bonds, usually called toxic waste, leaving the rest of the bonds almost as safe as US Treasury bonds (in theory).

Before we move on, it’s probably worth recapping the phoney assumptions made by the investment banks as they create these bonds:

1) That historic data on default rates is useful even though the market has exploded in size
2) That data of any sort is useful even though the system for originating the loans, with mortgage brokers paid by the volume of loans they make, actually encourages fraud.So far, so disturbing.


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But it gets worse!

Because the demand for toxic waste isn’t as huge as all that (some purchasers of this poison have suffered horrendous losses), investment banks have looked for ways to slice and dice the toxic waste, to create something almost edible.

They’ve mixed it up with other securities in collateralised debt obligations, which are bonds created out of other bonds – or sometimes they are bonds created out of bonds, that are in turn created out of other bonds (collateralised debt obligations squared, as if you wanted to know).

Even these bonds made of bonds rely to a worrying extent on all that dodgy historic data to determine their risk of default – the credit risk – or the risk that they’ll be vulnerable to interest-rate changes.

But notice too that once the original sub-prime loan is in a collateralised debt obligation, that loan could be one of perhaps a million different loans all mashed together to form this new bond.

What that means is that the eventual purchaser of the collateralised debt obligation has no more idea what’s in that bond than a sap eating a Turkey Twizzler knows what he or she is eating.

Little wonder that when there’s a global scare about what may actually be in these bonds, no one wants to touch them.

That said, the investment banker will argue, on the basis of portfolio theory, if you put one load of toxic waste with another seemingly independent load of toxic waste, then the risk of holding them will fall.

But for that to be true, each bunch of toxic waste would have to be uncorrelated to the other bunch – and that ain’t necessarily so.



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Here’s the bottom line:

For the past few years, Wall Street has operated a giant machine for turning mind-boggling amounts of US home loans – which are hugely vulnerable to losses from fraud and the inescapable cycles in interest rates and housing prices – into supposedly risk-free investments for risk-averse investors in Asia, the Middle East and (as it turns out) for Europe’s big banks.

Now if I worked for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch or the other big US investment banks, I might be considering my career options at the moment.

It is inconceivable that they will escape unscathed from this debacle. Whatever the financial cost to these banks, which will not be trivial, there will also be significant damage to their reputations.



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Europe’s shame !

But Europe’s banks are hardly blameless either. If the underlying cause of the global financial crisis is fraud and greed in the US home loans system – from mortgage broker to investment bank – the trigger of the crisis was chronic folly by big international lending banks, notably some in Europe.

I am talking about banks’ use of “conduits” and “structured investment vehicles” (SIVs).

These are special off-balance sheet companies set up by banks for borrowing cheap short-term funds from the money markets in the form of securities known as asset-backed commercial paper.

Now, as their name implies, the commercial paper is secured against asset-backed securities, such as mortgage-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations.

According to Citigroup, European conduits held more than $500bn of assets to back commercial paper at the end of March.

But there’s an intrinsic weakness to this funding: commercial paper of short duration has been sold by banks to finance their purchases of long-dated bonds whose assets include those dodgy sub-prime loans to US homeowners.

It’s a classic liquidity mismatch, except when there’s a reliable, active market for such bonds. To reiterate, European banks have been borrowing money that has to be repaid or rolled-over every 90 days to fund their ownership – direct or indirect – of 30-year US home loans.

They did this because they received more from the holdings of asset-backed bonds and collateralised debt obligations than they paid out in interest on the commercial paper.

In theory, they made an attractive return.Here’s the Catch 22: such funding schemes only work while the market has confidence in the value of the collateral backing the commercial paper.

When investors start to have qualms about asset-backed bonds and collateralised debt obligations, banks are squeezed in a vice: short-term funding disappears and there is a collapse in the value of the assets they hold.

So what happened over the past fortnight was a highly predictable – except by the big banks – double whammy.

Lenders to banks refused to repurchase commercial paper when it matured. And the banks that issued that paper faced a funding crisis, because they were unable to sell the collateral or raise new money against it.

Everyone had suddenly woken up to the idea that this allegedly safe collateral of mortgage-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations was the equivalent of a palace built on paper foundations.

That inability of major banks to raise short term finance is why the European Central Bank – and the US Federal Reserve and other central banks – recently pumped tens of billions of pounds of additional liquidity into the banking market at interest rates well below the new market rates (that had risen sharply).

This was subsidised lending by the ECB and the Fed. They have been bailing out silly behaviour by banks that should have known better.

State-insured banks had no business engaging in such short-sighted financial engineering, which is a million miles from their core banking operations on behalf of Europe’s consumers and companies.



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There is – contra the !

Economist – a serious moral hazard problem here.

The Bank of England, by contrast, would only lend emergency funds to banks at a punitive interest rate, which seems a more prudent way to be the lender of last resort.What horrors await

On Friday, in an attempt to shore up the US housing market, and by extension the value of all those crappy mortgage-backed bonds, the Fed signalled that interest rates would come down for all of us sooner rather than later.

But that’s to treat the symptoms rather than the disease itself.

To avoid a repeat of this kind of crisis, there needs to be a return to lenders taking some responsibility for the loans they make.

Most bankers now think it’s quaint and absurd that once-upon-a time a bank manager actually managed a loan book and even talked to the individuals to whom he or she lent.

Our brave new world – in which a Parisian or Frankfurt bank doesn’t even know whether it’s exposed to the US housing market through its Turkey Twizzler collateralised debt obligations – is neither healthy or sustainable.


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THEY ARE NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, BUT THEY ARE CHANGING THE WORLD TOO !

By Nicholas D. Kristof
Article Launched: 01/29/2008 01:31:59 AM PST



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DAVOS, Switzerland - With the American presidential campaign in full swing, the obvious way to change the world might seem to be through politics.

But growing numbers of young people are leaping into the fray and doing the job themselves. These are the social entrepreneurs, the 21st-century answer to the student protesters of the 1960s, and they are some of the most interesting people here at the World Economic Forum (not only because they're half the age of everyone else).

Andrew Klaber, a 26-year-old playing hooky from Harvard Business School to come here, is an example of the social entrepreneur. He spent the summer after his sophomore year in college in Thailand and was aghast to see teenage girls being forced into prostitution after their parents had died of AIDS.

So he started Orphans Against AIDS (http://www.orphansagainstaids.org/), which pays school-related expenses for hundreds of children who have been orphaned or otherwise affected by AIDS in poor countries. He and his friends volunteer their time and pay administrative costs out of their own pockets so that every penny goes to the children.

Klaber was able to expand the non-profit organization in Africa through introductions made by Jennifer Staple, who was a year ahead of him when they were in college. When she was a sophomore, Staple founded an organization in her dorm room to collect old reading glasses in the United States and ship them to poor countries. That group, Unite for Sight, has ballooned, and last year it provided eye care to 200,000 people (http://www.uniteforsight.org/).



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In the '60s, perhaps the most remarkable Americans were the civil rights workers and anti-war protesters who started movements that transformed the country. In the 1980s, the most fascinating people were entrepreneurs such as Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, who started companies and ended up revolutionizing the way we use technology.

Today the most remarkable young people are the social entrepreneurs, those who see a problem in society and roll up their sleeves to address it in new ways. Bill Drayton, the chief executive of an organization called Ashoka that supports social entrepreneurs, likes to say that such people neither hand out fish nor teach people to fish; their aim is to revolutionize the fishing industry.
Universities are now offering classes in social entrepreneurship, and there are a growing number of role models.

One of the social entrepreneurs here is Soraya Salti, a 37-year-old Jordanian woman who is trying to transform the Arab world by teaching entrepreneurship in schools. Her organization, Injaz, is now training 100,000 Arab students each year to find a market niche, construct a business plan and then launch and nurture a business.

The program (http://www.injaz.org.jo/) has spread to 12 Arab countries and is aiming to teach 1 million students a year. Salti argues that entrepreneurs can stimulate the economy, give young people a purpose and revitalize the Arab world. Girls in particular have flourished in the program, which has had excellent reviews and is getting support from the U.S. Agency for International Development. My hunch is that Salti will contribute more to stability and peace in the Middle East than any number of tanks in Iraq, U.N. resolutions or summit meetings.

Another young person on a mission is Ariel Zylbersztejn, a 27-year-old Mexican who founded and runs a company called Cinepop, which projects movies onto inflatable screens and shows them free in public parks. Zylbersztejn realized that 90 percent of Mexicans can't afford to go to movies, so he started his own business model: He sells sponsorships to companies to advertise to the thousands of viewers who come to watch the free entertainment.

Zylbersztejn works with micro-credit agencies and social welfare groups to engage the families that come to his movies and help them start businesses or try other strategies to overcome poverty. His goal is to take the model to Brazil, India, China and other countries.

So as we follow the presidential campaign, let's not forget that the winner isn't the only one who will shape the world. Only one person can become president of the United States, but there's no limit to the number of social entrepreneurs who can make this planet a better place.

NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
A New York Times columnist.


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ECONOMY NEEDS MORE THAN REBATE AND RATE CUT !

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The Fed this week sharply cut interest rates as a way to shore up investor confidence. Congress and the White House are rushing to assemble an economic stimulus package that would put tax rebates into consumers' hands.

While these are welcome moves, they're not a cure that strengthens the country's economic foundation. And, it will take time for the emergency actions to ripple through the economy.

So brace yourself for a rough ride over the next few years. Financial markets will continue to be volatile. Recession is still a real possibility. And many of the U.S. economy's underlying ills - such as a slumping housing market, credit crunch, excessive debt and a dysfunctional financial system - have yet to do their worst damage.

It's clear that despite the twin actions of Fed rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, the U.S. economy will remain on perilous footing. In the U.S. economic house, the Fed's rate drop is tantamount to reinforcing the walls. And the tax package is like slapping on a coat of paint. Neither fixes the shaky foundation.

In the short term, it was both reassuring and scary to see the Fed slash its benchmark lending rate 0.75 percent Tuesday. A rate cut had been expected. But its announcement between regular Fed meetings - and its sharpness - were surprising.

The interest rate move, which marked the biggest single-day rate cut on record, will eventually make mortgages, car loans and other forms of credit cheaper and more readily available to consumers and businesses.



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But the emergency rate cut left the Fed with less room to maneuver as it navigates between easing credit and fighting inflation.

Meanwhile, it's nice to see a rare outbreak of bipartisanship in Washington, where the Bush administration and congressional leaders are cooperating to come up with a $145 billion stimulus package by mid-February. The anemic economy could use this one-time spending boost from tax rebates and tax breaks.

Congressional Democrats must press Bush administration officials to make the package as broad and strong as possible. Much of the rebate money, expected to be $800 for individuals and $1,600 for married couples, should flow to low- and middle-income people.

They are the most likely to need and spend the money quickly.

The package also should boost or extend unemployment benefits, food stamps, and other assistance for the needy. And it should not leave out the poorest Americans who don't make enough money to pay income taxes at all.

Overall, the recent developments only underscored the fragility of the U.S. economy, and its fundamental woes: a troubled real estate market, tighter credit, high oil prices and slowing job growth.

The nation faces a tough slog ahead as the economy pays the price for the housing and credit bubbles of recent years.

Policy-makers must address the deep problems in the U.S. financial system, including unhealthy mortgage lending practices, instability among banks and other financial institutions exposed to the real estate crisis and heavy U.S. debt bankrolled by foreign investors.

The Fed, White House and Congress have taken the first steps to stabilize the markets and the economy. But the heavy lifting will be in tackling these fundamental problems.



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MEDITATION

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Learn to be silent.
Let your
quiet mind
listen and absorb.

PYTHAGORAS
(580 B. C.-500 B. C.)

A Greek philosopher and mathematician, Pythagoras was especially interested in the study of mathematics in relation to wights and measures and to musical theory.



All man's miseries drive from not being
able to sit quietly in a room alone.

BLAISE PASCAL
(1623-1662)

Blaise Pascal was a French philosopher, scientist, mathematician and writer, whose treatises contributed to the fields of hydraulics and pure geometry.


Meditation is a practice, advocated by those who live by there faith in reason, by number crunchers and authors of theorems and believers in Pascal's Law.

You may feel much as Blaise Pascal did when he wrote,

"The eternal silence of these infinite spaces terrifies me."




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Here are some suggestions for overcoming your terror and learning to be silent and able to sit quietly in a room alone:


# Practice noticing your in and out breaths as a way to cultivate turning inward to the silent self.
You can do in the middle of meetings, conversations, even parties.
Just notice and follow your breathing for a few moments, many times during your day.

# Give yourself time this day to simply sit in a room alone and observe your mind.
Keep track of the various thoughts that enter, exit, and lead to the next thought.
Your awareness of frenetic activity of your mind will help you to transcend frenzied pace of
thoughts.

# Read a book on meditation to learn how the practice can be initiated, or join a meditation
group.

# Many CDs and tapes are available to guide you in meditation. Find one that appeals to you.


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MOTOR BIKE, HOT MODELS ! CHILLING TALE !

/

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MOTOR BIKE !

Hot models !

At the Harley-Davidson factory workers do not just manufacture the motorbike, they celebrate it. Which is why each of its models is a legend. Megafactories on the National Geographic panel on Thursday January 24 at 8 pm takes a close look at the celebrated bike at its plant in Kansas City, USA.

The focus is on the V-Rod, the first Harley-Davidson motorcycle to go from 0 to 96 km per hour in just 3.52 seconds nearly twice as fast as any other bike from that stable. With its thrilling speed, liquid-cooled engine and exterior frame, the V-Rod represents a number of important firsts.

At the factory it is up to the engineers, designers and workers to ensure that the V-Rod’s creative look can handle the high speeds for which it was designed while maintaining the signature Harley-Davidson style that consumers expect.

Robots engage in carefully choreographed manoeuvres to create the motorcycle’s unique frame and remove any kinks. The engine assembly line, which puts together the V-Rods powerful V-Twin engine, includes miniature cameras that monitor for any missing parts.

Inside this mega factory, workers also build the V–Rod’s custom-made cousins: Screamin Eagle and Destroyer, the fastest factory-built drag racer ever made. Through cutting-edge factory footage and assembly worker interviews, Harley-Davidson reveals the makings of one of the most amazing bikes ever to hit the roads.


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CHILLING TALE !




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On August 31, 1888, a sex worker is brutally murdered in London’s East End, an area that attracts ‘gentlemen of leisure’ as well as people from other sections of society. Four more murders follow and there is an outcry for action. Who is this unidentified serial killer?

A letter arrives at London’s Central News Agency written by the murderer who claims to have killed all the five women. He signs off as Jack the Ripper.

Even after 120 years few names in history are as instantly recognisable. They say more books have been written on him than all of England’s royalty. There have been innumerable plays, songs, operas, telefilms and Hollywood movies on this Victorian killer.


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Watch Jack The Ripper later this week on History Channel. Starring Michael Caine and Jane Seymour, this one is an original whodunit. — NF

HIGH LEVEL OF CAFFEINE, RISK OF MISCARRIAGE ?

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Kaiser study links high levels of caffeine, risk of miscarriage !

By Barbara Feder OstrovMercury News
Article Launched: 01/21/2008 01:30:38 AM PST

Adding to the eternal debate about what pregnant women may safely eat and drink, a new Kaiser Permanente study suggests high doses of caffeine may double the rate of miscarriage.
Doctors generally urge pregnant women to limit their caffeine consumption to no more than one or two small cups of coffee daily.

Research on the overall effects of caffeine on miscarriage or premature birth remain inconclusive, although studies have shown that high levels of caffeine appear to be harmful, a finding echoed in the Kaiser study.

For the study, published in the February issue of the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kaiser researchers evaluated a group of 1,063 women early in their pregnancies.
The women provided a detailed account of their caffeine consumption and how they may have changed their habits after learning they were pregnant. The women also were asked about other factors that affect miscarriage risk, such as smoking, alcohol consumption and nausea.

Of the 1,063 women in the study, 172 miscarried. About 12 percent of the women who did not use caffeine at all miscarried, compared with about 25 percent of the women who drank more than 200 milligrams of caffeine daily. (There was no statistically significant difference between the women who drank from zero to 200 milligrams of caffeine daily and those who consumed nothing.)

The researchers focused on women who never changed their caffeine habits after learning they were




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pregnant. Previous studies have been criticized for failing to account for the fact that women with nausea tend to avoid coffee, while women without nausea - itself a risk factor - do not. Caffeine's apparently harmful effects persisted even after the researchers adjusted for age, smoking and other factors.

The 200-milligram figure is significant because many women do not know just how high the caffeine content in their drinks can be. While a 12-ounce can of diet Coke may contain only 47 milligrams, a 16-ounce "grande" cup of Starbucks coffee contains up to 330 milligrams.
Melissa Stanis, whose first baby is due in July, said she dramatically cut back her diet Coke habit from up to eight cans a day to one, at her doctor's behest. Studies such as Kaiser's help reinforce her decision, but it's still difficult, she said.

"I covet my one soda a day," said Stanis, a 32-year-old music editor who recently moved to Saratoga from Southern California. "I make a deliberate decision of when to have it, and I always want more."

David Savitz, a Mount Sinai School of Medicine researcher who has studied the link between caffeine and miscarriage, called the Kaiser study "very well done" but cautioned that only 39 percent of eligible women participated, a potential limitation.

Women should be aware that the evidence about caffeine's impact on miscarriage is mixed, Savitz said. "But if there's a risk, four cups is worse than three, and three is worse than two. Nobody is suggesting that one to two small cups of coffee a day is harmful."

Dr. Ruth Lathi, a Stanford University reproductive endocrinologist specializing in recurrent miscarriage, stressed that caffeine's effects are difficult to study.

"It's very hard to prove cause and effect during pregnancy. There are so many different factors that can contribute to miscarriage or pre-term delivery," Lathi said. "There is a lot of room for opinion in giving advice to women who are pregnant."




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Contact Barbara Feder Ostrov at bfeder@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5064

TECH COMPANIES BENEFIT FROM GLOBAL DEMAND !

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Will a slower economy sink Silicon Valley's fortunes, too?

TECH COMPANIES BENEFIT FROM GLOBAL DEMAND

By Pete Carey
Mercury News

The dollar is dropping, financial firms have lost billions of dollars in subprime loans, credit is tight and the stock market this month has given up all the gains it made last year.

But there's an almost surreal disconnect between the economic chill that has gripped the rest of the country and the forecasts for Silicon Valley.

Even as the national economy teeters on recession, predictions for the valley's economy are surprisingly optimistic: At worst, many economists expect a temporary slowdown this year. That is, assuming there is no global recession.

"There's a lot of hand-wringing about technology right now," said Steve Cochrane of Moody's Economy.com, "but the bottom line is global demand is still pretty strong, particularly for new designs, new equipment and chip manufacturing plants overseas."

That global demand should help Silicon Valley make it through with relatively little damage.

Venture capital investments are stronger than they have been in years.

And despite the battered Nasdaq and some lackluster earnings reports, demand for technology remains high.

"Silicon Valley is in better shape than the overall U.S. economy," said John B. Shoven, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. "My overall assessment is the Silicon Valley economy is going to come through this pretty well unscathed."

It's not that the valley is immune to the nation's troubles. Jittery




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consumers are cutting back, stock options are losing ground as share prices continue to slide, and the real estate industry is contracting.
Here's a look at some key areas:

Housing

Lower-priced homes are getting even cheaper and buyers aren't stepping forward, while prices for homes in wealthier sections of the valley are holding up - so far. It's a split market in which parts of San Jose have seen hundreds of foreclosures while demand remains strong in the northern part of the county. Still, the valley's economy is not closely tied to housing.

Jobs

The region added jobs in December for the third consecutive month, and its unemployment rate is a full percent lower than the state's average.

"For professional services, engineering and technology, we're still looking at a shortage of candidates and a plethora of openings," said Tim Thompson of Spherion, a technology and engineering staffing service whose managers in Silicon Valley remain "pretty bullish."

Wages

Over the next few years, the San Jose region is expected to lead the state in personal income growth and will continue to have among the highest wages in the state, according to a 2007-2010 California forecast by the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific.

"Any time you continue to lead the state in income levels, income growth and wage growth, you're doing OK," said the business school's dean, Chuck Williams.

The only place Williams sees the valley lagging is in housing starts, which could contract construction jobs. But commercial and government construction should pick up the slack, according to Richard Carlson of Spectrum Economics in Mountain View.

Technology

The valley's 150 largest public companies have lost a median 13.1 percent in share price so far this year, but many of those companies remain optimistic.

Take Seagate Technology. More than 70 percent of the Scotts Valley disk-drive maker's sales are overseas. It is running at maximum capacity and posted a 14 percent quarterly increase in sales last week. Nevertheless, Seagate saw its stock drop 7.7 Friday in what Chief Executive Bill Watkins calls "a fear market."

Watkins said he's talked with other valley executives and, like him, they're not seeing a recession here.

"Sure, it could happen, but we'll get through it," he said.

The drop in the dollar's value is seen as a plus by many of the valley's global tech companies. "The dollar's collapsing - that is valley heaven" because it improves the competitive position of the export-heavy tech industry, Carlson said.

"We have been slowing, but it's a temporary slowing," said Stephen Levy of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, "because it doesn't have anything to do with the core of our economic base."

Venture capital

Venture capital, an engine of job growth, so far has not felt any measurable impact from the nation's economic malaise, said Joseph Grundfest, who teaches a venture capital course at Stanford University law school, though he said "it remains to be seen" how the national picture will affect the valley.

"Venture capital is uncannily stable," said Greg Belanger, a Palo Alto-based Comerica Bank executive. "We see pretty strong new company formation and early stage investing. We see the venture capital market as being really quite good."

There's continued demand for office space from start-ups and companies founded in the past decade, though the demand for big corporate campuses has slowed, according to Phil Mahoney, a broker with Cornish & Carey Commercial.

Nevertheless, the tech industry faces some challenges, according to Tobias Levkovich, top equity strategist at Citi Investment Research.

Corporate profits and credit conditions "are pointing south right now," he said.

The national malaise could affect spending on information technology, which would slow job growth, he believes.

"The S&P 500 and the financial sector are going to have resistance to spending money," Levkovich said. "And when we talk international, keep in mind that leading indicators outside the U.S. are falling."

If that continues, the valley could experience deeper problems, said Cochrane of Economy.com.

"It's not difficult to devise a scenario in which we have at least a North Atlantic if not a global recession," he said. "Then there's no escape, because Silicon Valley is so tightly linked to the global economy. That's the greater risk we have to watch for."




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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact Pete Carey at pcarey@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5419.

FEAR AND RISK TAKING !

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I ENVY NOT IN ANY MOODS

I envy not in any moods
The captive void of noble rage,
The linnet born with in the cage,
That never knew the summer woods:

I envy not the beast that takes
His licence in the field of time,
Unfetter'd by the sense of crime,
To whom a conscience never wakes;

Nor, what may count itself as blest,
The heart that never plighted troth
But stagnates in the weeds of sloth,
nor any want-begotten rest.

I hold it true, what'er befall;
I feel it,when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

Alfred, Lord Tennyson
(1809-1892)

An English poet who was appointed poet laureate in 1850,
Alfred, Lord Tennyson is considered highly representative of the Victorian
age in England.


Alfred, Tennyson was the chief representative of what is known as the age of Victorian poetry.

He was hopelessly addicted to tobacco and port, he was a wanderer, and he remained largely unsettled throughout his life.

The poet Thomas Carlyle described him in a letter to Ralph Waldo Emerson as "A man sultry and sad in an element of gloom.....one of finest looking men in the world.....His voice is mightily loose. Fit for loud laughter and piercing wail."

From all that I have read of Alfred Tennyson, he was a deeply passionate man who loved to take risks and was willing to take the consequences when his investments or his pursuits did not turn out as planned.


Put the lesson of Tennyson's classic poem to work in your life with the following suggestions:

- Refuse to ever use the term "failure" again about yourself or anyone else.
Remind yourself that when things didn't go as planned you didn't fail, you only produced a result.

- Then ask yourself this powerfully life-enhancing question, "What am I going to do with the results I've produced?" And proceed to act in such a way as to be grateful rather than resentful for those less than glorious results.

- When others use the term "failure" about you, gently correct them by saying, "I have not failed, today I know another way not to bake a cake."

- Deliberately pursue activities in which you have previously shown little or no aptitude. The way out of fear or failure is to face it and laugh at the the results rather than be embarrassed or intimidated by earlier outcomes.

MASTER CLEANSE !

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The Truth about What's Really Making You Sick


There's a hidden source of sickness that's eating away at you from the inside and keeping your body from operating at 100%.

Your body is being overtaken by:

Pesticides sprayed on your food.
Lead and chlorine in your drinking water.
Hormones and antibiotics that get pumped in to the food you eat.
Industrial and automobile pollution that fills the air you breathe.
Processed food that's torture for your body to break down and digest.
Chemicals in the soaps, lotions, and other personal products you use daily.

If you were only exposed to a small amount of these hidden sources of sickness everyday your body's could deal with it, but you're being overtaken by them.

You can start to see how this can cripple your body after a while. Unless you're growing your food in untainted soil - raising your own animals without drugs and hormones - drinking from a pure mountain spring untouched by man - and breathing air free of industrial and automobile pollution.

Your body is taking in more life destroying waste then it can handle.

Of course no one can live like that in today's world, that's why you need to cleanse your body with the Master Cleanse.

Help you:

Drop fat and lose weight fast!
Break unhealthy habits.
Cleanse your body of years of built up waste.
Give you a major energy.
Boost/Increase; mental clarity and focus.
Make you look younger!
Strengthen your immune system!
Give you more strength and stamina!
Relieve aches and pains.
Even revitalize your sex life.

Your Body's Last Line Of Defense

Because your body can't possibly filter out all the toxic waste, it does the next best thing and that's store the waste to prevent it from eating away at your vital organs.

By wrapping the toxic intruders that enter your body in a wall of mucus the damaging effects are lessoned, but over time this internal waste can reach a point of critical mass causing it to slowly rob you of your health and vitality.

Here's what the highly regarded Dr Bernard Jensen says about this internal waste:

The heavy mucus coating in the colon thickens and becomes a host of putrefaction.
The blood capillaries to the colon begin to pick up the toxins, poisons and noxious debris as it seeps through the bowel wall.
All tissues and organs of the body are now taking on toxic substances.
Here is the beginning of true autointoxication on a physiological level.

~ Dr Bernard Jensen, DC, ND, Ph.D.

What Dr Jensen is talking about is when your body becomes so polluted that you slowly begin to poison yourself from the inside - what he calls "autointoxication".
And because this happens over the course of months and years most people don't notice it happening.

They just assume they're always tired because they're getting older, or that they're gaining weight because they don't have the same metabolism they had when they were 17.

They're Wrong!

The slow decline in health is often caused by your body being slowly poisoned by all the unnatural waste that gets in our body.

The Master Cleanse Gets Rid Of Internal Waste Fast

It's common to pass pounds of waste in just 10 days on the Master Cleanse, and not the normal kind of waste.

It's often black as tar - The hardened phlegm and mucus comes out like long chunks of rubber - The waste comes out holding the shape of the inside of your intestine because it's been inside you for years.

And the smell of this stuff is gut wrenching.

It's also common to pass gallstones; which are marble sized green and yellow balls of hardened cholesterol that can block the bile ducts from the liver to the small intestine which can be fatal if you don't remove them.

How can you live with all this sickening waste clogging up your body?

I know it's gross, but as you unceremoniously expel this waste you'll feel absolutely amazing.

Your body will hum with a lightness and renewed energy that you can't get from drugs, exercise, or supplements.



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EGGSHELL THERAPY !

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Eggshells are not trash.

They are helpful in the treatment of osteoporosis.

They are an ideal source of calcium that is 90% absorbable by our bones.

Besides calcium carbonate, eggshell contain all themicro elements essential for our body : Copper, Manganese, Fluorine, Iron, Molybdenum, Sulphur, Silicon, Zinc, and other - 27 Elements in total.

The composition of an eggshell is very similar to that of our Bones and Teeth.

German and Hungarian Scientists Who researched the influence of Eggshell Therapy on the human body concluded that for both children and adults it had positive results against Breaking Nails and Hairs, Bleeding Gums, Constipation, Hypersensitivity, Insomnia, Chronic Colds,and Asthma.

The Therapy strengthens the bone tissue and removes radioactive elements from the body.

Eggshell Therapy offers invaluable benefits in the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis without causing any side effects. The therapy is simple and does not require any expenses.


RECIPE

Immerse an eggshell in boiling water for 5 minutes, let it dry, and grind it in a coffee grinder.

Take 0.009-0.018oz (0.5-1g) a day.

You can mix it with juice squeezed from one half of a lemon or add it to yours grains and cottage cheese for osteoporosis prevention.

Use the therapy for 30 days twice a year (January and November).


With Thanks From:
Can We Live 150 Years?
A BODY MAINTENANCE HAND BOOK
Written By:
Mikhail Tombak, Ph.D.
A Russian Doctor



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LEMON THERAPY !

LEMON JUICE !

Lemon Juice is rich in vitamin C, microelements and hormones.

It wonderfully cleans insoluble salts and slime out of our body.

Drinking juice squeezed from one lemon helps us stay young.

It contains estrogen-like phytochemicals substances and therefore is very beneficial for older females.

Some chemical compounds found in lemon juice are very effective in the prevention of infectious diseases.

We should drink lemon juice as a preventative measure against the flu epidemic and colds in late fall and early spring.

Lemon juice can be used in a preventative or healing therapy.

For Prevention :

It is used in the following dosages:

Day 1 - 1 Lemon - Day 10
Day 2 - 2 Lemons - Day 9
Day 3 - 3 Lemons - Day 8
Day 4 - 4 Lemons - Day 7
Day 5 - 5 Lemons - Day 6

From the first to the fifth day, we add one lemon every day and from the sixth day to the tenth day, we subtract one lemon a day.In total, we drink juice squeezed from 30 lemons during 10 days.

We can prepare lemon juice in the following way: Cut a lemon in half horizontally, squeeze both halves and drink the juice without adding any sugar.If you are not able to drink pure lemon juice, dilute it with water and add one teaspoonful of honey.

You should not discard the squeezed lemon - it contains valuable phytochemicals ingredients and essential oils that are beneficial for the heart,blood vessels and brain.

Cut the squeezed lemon into small pieces, put them into a jar, add honey or sugar, and put it into a refrigerator. In ten hours, you will have an excellent lemon extract that can be mixed with boiled or mineral water and used instead of tea or coffee.

Lemon Juice Healing Therapy !

Use only pure lemon juice for the purpose of this therapy - do not dilute it with water; do not add any honey or sugar. It should be prepared the same way as for preventative lemon therapy (as discussed above).You can drink it half an hour before or one hour after your meals. whichever is more convenient.

To treat serious,chronic diseases, we have to drink in total juice squeezed from 200 lemons during the therapy. THIS NUMBER might surprise you. Some people get a sensation of sour taste in their mouth just by thinking about such amount of citric acid. This is not an error - it has to be 200 lemons and not even one fewer (more is allowed).

During his practice, Author have seen hundreds of people who enjoyed good health thanks to drinking large amounts of lemon juice.

I drank up to ten cups of lemon juice (squeezed from about forty lemons) daily. When you try, you will find out that there is nothing to be afraid of.

In rare cases, large amounts of citric acid in the stomach may lead to irregularities of intestinal function.

In such cases we can temporarily switch to preventative therapy dosages until our stomach get used to lemon juice, and then try the healing therapy again.

In Healing Therapy;

The following dosages are recommended:

Day 1 & 12 - 5 lemons
Day 2 & 11 - 10 lemons
Day 3 & 10 - 15 lemons
Day 4 & 9 - 20 lemons
Day 5,6,7 & 8 - 25 lemons

This represents in total juice squeezed from 200 lemons consumed over 12 days. The daily amounts should we split into 3 - 5 dosages. Some people are terrified by the amount of juice (about one liter or quart) to be consumed on days 5, 6, 7, and 8.

However,we are not afraid to drink two quart of apple or blackcurrant juice. Lemon is just another fruit only more sour.

The therapy described above can be used for treating kidney stones.Lemon juice is one of the best remedies against them.

There is an observable increase in the kidney function during the therapy.Your urine may get darker and, when allowed to stand for some time, may produce reddish sediment of uric salts.

At the beginning of the therapy, one quart of of urine can produce significant amount of sediment.This means that uric acid is rapidly removed from our body thanks to the therapy.

Our urine becomes amber-colored at the end of therapy and it does not produce sediment even if allowed to stand for a long time. This means that our body does not contain excess amounts of uric acid anymore.

With Thanks From:

Can We Live 150 Years?
A BODY MAINTENANCE HAND BOOK
Written By:
Mikhail Tombak, Ph.D.
A Russian Doctor

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Commercial Equipment Direct Assistance Program (CEDAP)

Fact Sheet: FY 2007 Commercial Equipment Direct Assistance Program (CEDAP)
Release Date: December 20, 2007
Overview
The Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Commercial Equipment Direct Assistance Program (CEDAP) is an important component of the Administration’s larger, coordinated effort to strengthen the nation’s overall level of preparedness. CEDAP provides specialized commercial equipment and related training directly to smaller jurisdictions and eligible metropolitan areas.
Purpose
The FY 2007 CEDAP complements the Department’s other major grants programs to enhance regional response capabilities, mutual aid, and interoperable communications by providing technology and equipment, along with the training required to operate that equipment, to law enforcement and emergency responder agencies in smaller jurisdictions and certain metropolitan areas.
Funding
The FY 2007 CEDAP will provide equipment and training valued at approximately $33.7 million to law enforcement and emergency responder agencies across the nation.
Eligibility
Eligible applicants included law enforcement agencies and other emergency responder agencies who demonstrate the equipment will be used to improve their capability and capacity to respond to a major critical incident or to work with other first responders. Applicants were to have selected items from the CEDAP Equipment Catalog that they had been unable to acquire through other DHS programs.
Program Highlights
The FY 2007 CEDAP offers equipment in the following categories: personal protective equipment (PPE); thermal imaging, night vision, and video surveillance tools; chemical and biological detection tools; information technology and risk management tools; and, communications interoperability equipment.
State Administrative Agencies (SAA) play a vital role during the application process by helping to ensure requested equipment is consistent with the state’s Homeland Security Strategy. Training is provided at the time technologies are delivered and transferred under the program. The training is a prerequisite to receipt of equipment and helps ensure that the systems and devices awarded will be utilized fully and correctly.
In FY 2007, a total of 3,709 CEDAP applications were submitted and 1,853 were accepted for award. This included 56 awards for the Incident Commander’s Radio Interface (ICRI) under the category of Interoperable Communications equipment. Of the 1,853 awards 1,389 (75 percent) were awarded to law enforcement agencies with the remainder awarded to fire departments, emergency medical service, emergency management and public safety.
# # #
This page was last modified on December 20, 2007


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